Dr Administrator
Author's posts
May 22 2015
Book review: Cryptocurrency by Paul Vigna and Michael J. Casey
This review was first posted at ScraperWiki.
Amongst hipster start ups in the tech industry Bitcoin has been a thing for a while. As one of the more elderly members of this community I wanted to understand a bit more about it. Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money are Challenging the Global Economic Order by Paul Vigna and Michael Casey fits this bill.
Bitcoin is a digital currency: the Bitcoin has a value which can be exchanged against other currencies but it has no physical manifestation. The really interesting thing is how Bitcoins move around without any central authority, there is no Bitcoin equivalent of the Visa or BACS payment systems with their attendant organisations or central back as in the case of a normal currency. This division between Bitcoin as currency and Bitcoin as decentralised exchange mechanism is really important.
Conventional payment systems like Visa have a central organisation which charges retailers a percentage on every payment made using their system. This is exceedingly lucrative. Bitcoin replaces this with the blockchain – a distributed ledger in which transactions are encrypted. The validation is carried out by so-called ‘miners’ who are paid in Bitcoin for carrying out a computationally intensive encryption task which ensures the scarcity of Bitcoin and helps maintain its value. In principle anybody can be a Bitcoin miner, all they need is the required free software and the ability to run the software. The generation of new Bitcoin is strictly controlled by the fundamental underpinnings of the blockchain software. Bitcoin miners are engaged in a hardware arms race with each other as they compete to complete units on the blockchain, more processing power equals more chances to complete blocks ahead of the competition and hence win more Bitcoin. In practice mining meaningful quantities these days requires significant, highly specialised hardware.
Vigna and Casey provide a history of Bitcoin starting with a bit of background as to how economists see currency, this amounts to the familiar division between the Austrian school and the Keynesians. The Austrians are interested in currency as gold, whilst the Keynesians are interested in Bitcoin as a medium for exchange. As a currency Bitcoin doesn’t appeal to Keysians since there is no “quantitative easing” in Bitcoin, the government can’t print money.
Bitcoin did not appear from nowhere, during the late 90s and early years of the 20th century there were corporate attempts at building digital currencies. These died away, they had the air of lone wolf operations hidden within corporate structures which met their end perhaps when they filtered up to a certain level and their threat to the current business model was revealed. Or perhaps in the chaos of the financial collapse.
More pertinently there were the cypherpunks, a group interested in cryptography operating on the non-governmental, non-corporate side of the community. This group was also experimenting with ideas around digital currencies. This culminated in 2008 with the launch of Bitcoin, by the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, to a cryptography mailing list. Nakamoto has since disappeared, no one has ever met him, no one knows whether he is the pseudonym of one of the cypherpunks, and if so, which one.
Following its release Bitcoin experienced a period of organic growth with cryptography enthusiasts and the technically curious. With the Bitcoin currency growing an ecosystem started to grow around it beginning with more user-friendly routes to accessing the blockchain – wallets to hold your Bitcoins, digital currency exchanges and tools to inspect the transactions on the blockchain.
Bitcoin has suffered reverses, most notoriously the collapse of the Mt Gox currency exchange and its use in the Silk Road market, which specialised in illegal merchandise. The Mt Gox collapse demonstrated both flaws in the underlying protocol and its vulnerability to poorly managed components in the ecosystem. Alongside this has been the wildly fluctuating value of the Bitcoin against other conventional currencies.
One of the early case studies in Cryptocurrency is of women in Afghanistan, forbidden by social pressure if not actual law from owning private bank accounts. Bitcoin provides them with a means for gaining independence and control over at least some financial resources. There is the prospect of it becoming the basis of a currency exchange system for the developing world where transferring money within a country or sending money home from the developed world are as yet unsolved problems, beset both with uncertainty and high costs.
To my mind Bitcoin is an interesting idea, as a traditional currency it feels like a non-starter but as a decentralized transaction mechanism it looks very promising. The problem with decentralisation is: who do you hold accountable? In two senses, firstly the technical sense – what if the software is flawed? Secondly, conventional currencies are backed by countries not software, a country has a stake in the success of a currency and the means to execute strategies to protect it. Bitcoin has the original vision of a vanished creator, and a very small team of core developers. As an aside Vigna and Casey point out there is a limit within Bitcoin of 7 transactions per second which compares with 10,000 transactions per second handled by the Visa network.
It’s difficult to see what the future holds for Bitcoin, Vigna and Casey run through some plausible scenarios. Cryptocurrency is well-written, comprehensive and pitched at the right technical level.
May 11 2015
Everyone is awesome, no one is to blame
The Liberal Democrats have members from all walks of life. I, for example, am a scientist and sometime software developer. To be honest I’m more of a manager than a developer. There are many tools for software management, one of them is the Agile framework. This is a relatively new innovation and the details are unimportant here but I think there are a couple of things we can learn from Agile. The first is the title of this blog post:
Everyone is awesome, no one is to blame
This mantra is something we bear in mind when we look back over a period or a particular event. The benefit of this approach is most apparent when you are faced with a situation where the mantra is left behind: “You messed up, you are to blame”. Under these circumstances the protagonists in the retrospective become entrenched in their positions and unwilling to open up as to why something happened. It becomes more important to defend your side and make sure someone else is to blame. This approach is unhelpful, and ultimately you have to go forward and continue working with those found to be to blame in a poisoned atmosphere.
We as Liberal Democrats face this risk. I’ve been a member of the party since 1988, it was only after the 2010 general election that I realised that the Liberal Democrats had factions! In a former life I worked with a student from Yugoslavia, she had fled the country with her family at the time of the war. We talked about Yugoslavia and I asked her once whether she knew in her class at school who was a Serb and who a Croat. She said: “Of course not, we were all the same”. In Yugoslavia demagogues dredged up division where none previously existed.
I joined the Liberal Democrats because I wanted to be with people like me, not with some people like me and that other bunch who I couldn’t abide. Schism is for socialists ;-) We mustn’t let any dissection of what is coming to be known as “Cockroach Thursday” become an excuse for factionalism and finger pointing, other parties have tried that approach and it doesn’t work.
The second tool for analysis you might enjoy is “5 whys”. Parents of toddlers will know be somewhat familiar with this technique, used for establishing root causes. It’s very easy to jump to a cause for an event in one bound but it isn’t necessarily right. The “5 whys” method invites you to question the first cause you come up with repeatedly with further “whys”.
- Why did we lose? We broke our promise on tuition fees
- Why did we make our promise on tuition fees? Because the NUS presented us with a pledge to sign
- Why did we sign the pledge on tuition fees? We wanted the votes of students
- Why did we want the votes of students? Because we wanted to win parliamentary seats
- Why did we want to win parliamentary seats? So we could implement our policies which we feel are best for Britain.
The important point here is not my particular responses to the questions rather that I haven’t stopped at the first one, and each answer leads to further questions which we may return to later.
For my next post I will highlight the use of the Gedankenexperiment in the analysis of political problems.
May 08 2015
A cockroach emerges…
I’m a Liberal Democrat. Our party president, Tim Farron, once described us being like cockroaches in our indestructability.
Today the Liberal Democrat parliamentary party has dropped from 57 parliamentary seats to 8, slightly lower than was achieved by the Liberal Party in 1979. Since 2010 Liberal Democrat local councillors have experienced this level of defeat, as have the party’s Members in the European Parliament. It looked like things might be different for the parliamentary party, but they weren’t.
The writing was on the wall from the moment Nick Clegg and David Cameron stepped into the Downing Street rose garden in May 2010. Our opinion poll ratings plummeted from that moment, before we’d done anything else but form the Coalition.
Today, in May 2015 we lost seats to Labour because of the “Great Betrayal”, we lost seats to the Tories because people thought of the Coalition “I actually quite like this government” and then backed the lead partner, we lost votes to UKIP and the Greens because they are the new repository of the protest vote, we lost seats to the SNP because nationalism trumps all.
The night had virtually no redeeming features. I particularly feel the loss of MPs like Lynne Featherstone, Jo Swinson and Julian Huppert all of whom made significant contributions in parliament on equality, science and anti-authoritarianism. All of whom appeared to be popular local MPs, all of whom were swept aside by the national tide.
Nick Clegg retained his seat, for which I’m rather pleased. Outsiders don’t realise quite how dependent a Lib Dem leader is on their party. The things Nick Clegg took the blame for were the things we as Liberal Democrats had collectively decided. He has been the one that has born the brunt of outrage against the Liberal Democrats with good grace. He is the one, more than any of the three main party leaders, who has talked with the public.
The political landscape won’t remould itself, it won’t be remoulded by online petitions. It won’t be remoulded by the “progressive alliance” engaging in rounds of recrimination. It won’t be remoulded by endless venting on twitter, or invoking the apocalypse. It won’t be remoulded by the lion’s roar, or an idiot with a pair of trews.
It will be remoulded by people like me who spend their spare time doing local politics: sitting in interminable meetings in their evenings, posting leaflets through doors, standing for local elections, helping local people and breaking out once every 5 years or so to fight a General Election.
I’m still a Liberal Democrat. I’m proud of what we achieved in coalition in the last 5 years, it’s been the best time to be a Liberal Democrat since I joined the party in 1988.
I’m going to go back to trying to win seats at elections and making sure the liberal voice is heard.
May 07 2015
General Election 2015–expected declaration times
There is a General Election being held in the UK today, along with local council elections in some parts of the country. The count will take place commencing at 10pm this evening, and the count will likely finish sometime around noon tomorrow.
Should you stay up awaiting all the results?
My advice is “no” but that’s because I’m getting old and like my sleep! My plan is to stay up for the BBC exit poll at 10:15pm and then go to bed, probably to awake with the dawn chorus at 4am.
If you do stay up then what can you expect? The Press Association list of estimated declaration times from here, they’re based on council estimates and previous declarations where the council provides no estimates. My experience is that the more interesting results are delayed beyond their estimated time.
As you can see from the chart below, aside from a scattering of seats, things start to pick up around 2am. Results start to pour in around 3am and by 7am it is all over bar a few stragglers.
If you want a more narrative description of what will happen and some anticipated milestones then The Guardian has a report (here).
For the record, and for readability here is the complete list:
| 320 | Houghton & Sunderland South | 23:00 |
| 603 | Washington & Sunderland West | 23:30 |
| 551 | Sunderland Central | 00:01 |
| 216 | Durham North West | 00:30 |
| 14 | Antrim North | 01:00 |
| 175 | Dagenham & Rainham | 01:00 |
| 215 | Durham North | 01:00 |
| 255 | Foyle | 01:00 |
| 435 | Nuneaton | 01:00 |
| 176 | Darlington | 01:30 |
| 214 | Durham, City of | 01:30 |
| 221 | Easington | 01:30 |
| 347 | Lagan Valley | 01:30 |
| 407 | Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 01:30 |
| 584 | Tyrone West | 01:30 |
| 586 | Upper Bann | 01:30 |
| 588 | Vale of Clwyd | 01:30 |
| 12 | Angus | 02:00 |
| 13 | Antrim East | 02:00 |
| 28 | Barking | 02:00 |
| 38 | Battersea | 02:00 |
| 45 | Belfast East | 02:00 |
| 46 | Belfast North | 02:00 |
| 47 | Belfast South | 02:00 |
| 48 | Belfast West | 02:00 |
| 66 | Bishop Auckland | 02:00 |
| 71 | Blaenau Gwent | 02:00 |
| 106 | Broxbourne | 02:00 |
| 125 | Canterbury | 02:00 |
| 131 | Carmarthen East & Dinefwr | 02:00 |
| 132 | Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South | 02:00 |
| 134 | Castle Point | 02:00 |
| 139 | Chelmsford | 02:00 |
| 142 | Chesham & Amersham | 02:00 |
| 150 | Christchurch | 02:00 |
| 202 | Down North | 02:00 |
| 217 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | 02:00 |
| 223 | East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow | 02:00 |
| 226 | Eastleigh | 02:00 |
| 239 | Epping Forest | 02:00 |
| 250 | Fife North East | 02:00 |
| 269 | Glenrothes | 02:00 |
| 285 | Halton | 02:00 |
| 345 | Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath | 02:00 |
| 348 | Lanark & Hamilton East | 02:00 |
| 375 | Llanelli | 02:00 |
| 427 | Northampton North | 02:00 |
| 428 | Northampton South | 02:00 |
| 443 | Oxford East | 02:00 |
| 462 | Putney | 02:00 |
| 487 | Rutherglen & Hamilton West | 02:00 |
| 530 | Staffordshire South | 02:00 |
| 542 | Strangford | 02:00 |
| 552 | Surrey East | 02:00 |
| 562 | Tamworth | 02:00 |
| 574 | Tooting | 02:00 |
| 647 | Ynys Mon | 02:00 |
| 570 | Thornbury & Yate | 02:15 |
| 15 | Antrim South | 02:30 |
| 143 | Chester, City of | 02:30 |
| 151 | Cities of London & Westminster | 02:30 |
| 153 | Cleethorpes | 02:30 |
| 189 | Devon East | 02:30 |
| 211 | Dundee East | 02:30 |
| 212 | Dundee West | 02:30 |
| 227 | Eddisbury | 02:30 |
| 234 | Ellesmere Port & Neston | 02:30 |
| 251 | Filton & Bradley Stoke | 02:30 |
| 287 | Hampshire East | 02:30 |
| 296 | Hartlepool | 02:30 |
| 302 | Hemel Hempstead | 02:30 |
| 308 | Hertford & Stortford | 02:30 |
| 330 | Inverclyde | 02:30 |
| 334 | Islington North | 02:30 |
| 335 | Islington South & Finsbury | 02:30 |
| 342 | Kilmarnock & Loudoun | 02:30 |
| 344 | Kingswood | 02:30 |
| 359 | Leicestershire North West | 02:30 |
| 367 | Lichfield | 02:30 |
| 379 | Ludlow | 02:30 |
| 385 | Makerfield | 02:30 |
| 399 | Mitcham & Morden | 02:30 |
| 402 | Montgomeryshire | 02:30 |
| 412 | Newbury | 02:30 |
| 474 | Rochdale | 02:30 |
| 533 | Stirling | 02:30 |
| 615 | Westminster North | 02:30 |
| 621 | Wimbledon | 02:30 |
| 636 | Workington | 02:30 |
| 646 | Yeovil | 02:30 |
| 1 | Aberavon | 03:00 |
| 2 | Aberconwy | 03:00 |
| 6 | Airdrie & Shotts | 03:00 |
| 10 | Alyn & Deeside | 03:00 |
| 11 | Amber Valley | 03:00 |
| 16 | Arfon | 03:00 |
| 17 | Argyll & Bute | 03:00 |
| 29 | Barnsley Central | 03:00 |
| 30 | Barnsley East | 03:00 |
| 33 | Basildon South & Thurrock East | 03:00 |
| 41 | Bedford | 03:00 |
| 49 | Bermondsey & Old Southwark | 03:00 |
| 75 | Bolsover | 03:00 |
| 76 | Bolton North East | 03:00 |
| 77 | Bolton South East | 03:00 |
| 78 | Bolton West | 03:00 |
| 81 | Bosworth | 03:00 |
| 84 | Bracknell | 03:00 |
| 89 | Brecon & Radnorshire | 03:00 |
| 90 | Brent Central | 03:00 |
| 91 | Brent North | 03:00 |
| 100 | Bristol North West | 03:00 |
| 102 | Bristol West | 03:00 |
| 111 | Bury North | 03:00 |
| 112 | Bury South | 03:00 |
| 113 | Bury St Edmunds | 03:00 |
| 117 | Camberwell & Peckham | 03:00 |
| 130 | Carlisle | 03:00 |
| 154 | Clwyd South | 03:00 |
| 155 | Clwyd West | 03:00 |
| 156 | Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill | 03:00 |
| 160 | Copeland | 03:00 |
| 170 | Croydon Central | 03:00 |
| 171 | Croydon North | 03:00 |
| 172 | Croydon South | 03:00 |
| 179 | Delyn | 03:00 |
| 181 | Derby North | 03:00 |
| 182 | Derby South | 03:00 |
| 184 | Derbyshire Mid | 03:00 |
| 185 | Derbyshire North East | 03:00 |
| 186 | Derbyshire South | 03:00 |
| 209 | Dunbartonshire East | 03:00 |
| 213 | Dunfermline & Fife West | 03:00 |
| 224 | East Lothian | 03:00 |
| 241 | Erewash | 03:00 |
| 244 | Exeter | 03:00 |
| 245 | Falkirk | 03:00 |
| 256 | Fylde | 03:00 |
| 260 | Gedling | 03:00 |
| 262 | Glasgow Central | 03:00 |
| 263 | Glasgow East | 03:00 |
| 264 | Glasgow North | 03:00 |
| 265 | Glasgow North East | 03:00 |
| 266 | Glasgow North West | 03:00 |
| 267 | Glasgow South | 03:00 |
| 268 | Glasgow South West | 03:00 |
| 273 | Gower | 03:00 |
| 290 | Hampstead & Kilburn | 03:00 |
| 293 | Harrogate & Knaresborough | 03:00 |
| 298 | Hastings & Rye | 03:00 |
| 299 | Havant | 03:00 |
| 310 | Hertfordshire South West | 03:00 |
| 314 | High Peak | 03:00 |
| 316 | Holborn & St Pancras | 03:00 |
| 318 | Hornsey & Wood Green | 03:00 |
| 323 | Hull East | 03:00 |
| 324 | Hull North | 03:00 |
| 325 | Hull West & Hessle | 03:00 |
| 326 | Huntingdon | 03:00 |
| 333 | Isle of Wight | 03:00 |
| 337 | Jarrow | 03:00 |
| 343 | Kingston & Surbiton | 03:00 |
| 346 | Knowsley | 03:00 |
| 376 | Londonderry East | 03:00 |
| 386 | Maldon | 03:00 |
| 393 | Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney | 03:00 |
| 395 | Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East | 03:00 |
| 403 | Moray | 03:00 |
| 406 | Motherwell & Wishaw | 03:00 |
| 408 | Neath | 03:00 |
| 417 | Newport East | 03:00 |
| 418 | Newport West | 03:00 |
| 421 | Norfolk Mid | 03:00 |
| 436 | Ochil & Perthshire South | 03:00 |
| 445 | Paisley & Renfrewshire North | 03:00 |
| 446 | Paisley & Renfrewshire South | 03:00 |
| 450 | Perth & Perthshire North | 03:00 |
| 451 | Peterborough | 03:00 |
| 460 | Preston | 03:00 |
| 469 | Renfrewshire East | 03:00 |
| 471 | Ribble Valley | 03:00 |
| 481 | Rother Valley | 03:00 |
| 482 | Rotherham | 03:00 |
| 486 | Rushcliffe | 03:00 |
| 513 | Skipton & Ripon | 03:00 |
| 514 | Sleaford & North Hykeham | 03:00 |
| 515 | Slough | 03:00 |
| 516 | Solihull | 03:00 |
| 517 | Somerset North | 03:00 |
| 522 | South Shields | 03:00 |
| 528 | Stafford | 03:00 |
| 535 | Stockton North | 03:00 |
| 536 | Stockton South | 03:00 |
| 540 | Stone | 03:00 |
| 550 | Suffolk West | 03:00 |
| 558 | Swansea East | 03:00 |
| 559 | Swansea West | 03:00 |
| 560 | Swindon North | 03:00 |
| 561 | Swindon South | 03:00 |
| 565 | Telford | 03:00 |
| 571 | Thurrock | 03:00 |
| 589 | Vale of Glamorgan | 03:00 |
| 608 | Wellingborough | 03:00 |
| 610 | Welwyn Hatfield | 03:00 |
| 611 | Wentworth & Dearne | 03:00 |
| 623 | Windsor | 03:00 |
| 641 | Wrexham | 03:00 |
| 642 | Wycombe | 03:00 |
| 643 | Wyre & Preston North | 03:00 |
| 8 | Aldridge-Brownhills | 03:30 |
| 35 | Bassetlaw | 03:30 |
| 40 | Beckenham | 03:30 |
| 42 | Bedfordshire Mid | 03:30 |
| 44 | Bedfordshire South West | 03:30 |
| 69 | Blackpool North & Cleveleys | 03:30 |
| 70 | Blackpool South | 03:30 |
| 72 | Blaydon | 03:30 |
| 82 | Bournemouth East | 03:30 |
| 83 | Bournemouth West | 03:30 |
| 104 | Bromley & Chislehurst | 03:30 |
| 109 | Burnley | 03:30 |
| 121 | Cambridgeshire North West | 03:30 |
| 122 | Cambridgeshire South | 03:30 |
| 136 | Charnwood | 03:30 |
| 141 | Cheltenham | 03:30 |
| 164 | Cotswolds, The | 03:30 |
| 201 | Dover | 03:30 |
| 203 | Down South | 03:30 |
| 206 | Dulwich & West Norwood | 03:30 |
| 210 | Dunbartonshire West | 03:30 |
| 222 | East Ham | 03:30 |
| 233 | Edmonton | 03:30 |
| 237 | Enfield North | 03:30 |
| 238 | Enfield Southgate | 03:30 |
| 272 | Gosport | 03:30 |
| 276 | Great Grimsby | 03:30 |
| 292 | Harlow | 03:30 |
| 368 | Lincoln | 03:30 |
| 369 | Linlithgow & Falkirk East | 03:30 |
| 374 | Livingston | 03:30 |
| 377 | Loughborough | 03:30 |
| 396 | Midlothian | 03:30 |
| 419 | Newry & Armagh | 03:30 |
| 442 | Orpington | 03:30 |
| 463 | Rayleigh & Wickford | 03:30 |
| 468 | Reigate | 03:30 |
| 521 | South Ribble | 03:30 |
| 544 | Streatham | 03:30 |
| 548 | Suffolk Coastal | 03:30 |
| 553 | Surrey Heath | 03:30 |
| 569 | Thirsk & Malton | 03:30 |
| 576 | Torfaen | 03:30 |
| 585 | Ulster Mid | 03:30 |
| 590 | Vauxhall | 03:30 |
| 593 | Walsall North | 03:30 |
| 594 | Walsall South | 03:30 |
| 598 | Warley | 03:30 |
| 607 | Weaver Vale | 03:30 |
| 612 | West Bromwich East | 03:30 |
| 613 | West Bromwich West | 03:30 |
| 614 | West Ham | 03:30 |
| 634 | Worcestershire Mid | 03:30 |
| 640 | Wrekin, The | 03:30 |
| 5 | Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | 04:00 |
| 7 | Aldershot | 04:00 |
| 19 | Ashfield | 04:00 |
| 23 | Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | 04:00 |
| 24 | Ayrshire Central | 04:00 |
| 25 | Ayrshire North & Arran | 04:00 |
| 27 | Banff & Buchan | 04:00 |
| 31 | Barrow & Furness | 04:00 |
| 32 | Basildon & Billericay | 04:00 |
| 43 | Bedfordshire North East | 04:00 |
| 55 | Bexleyheath & Crayford | 04:00 |
| 61 | Birmingham Ladywood | 04:00 |
| 67 | Blackburn | 04:00 |
| 88 | Braintree | 04:00 |
| 93 | Brentwood & Ongar | 04:00 |
| 94 | Bridgend | 04:00 |
| 95 | Bridgwater & Somerset West | 04:00 |
| 99 | Bristol East | 04:00 |
| 101 | Bristol South | 04:00 |
| 105 | Bromsgrove | 04:00 |
| 107 | Broxtowe | 04:00 |
| 114 | Caerphilly | 04:00 |
| 120 | Cambridgeshire North East | 04:00 |
| 124 | Cannock Chase | 04:00 |
| 133 | Carshalton & Wallington | 04:00 |
| 135 | Ceredigion | 04:00 |
| 140 | Chelsea & Fulham | 04:00 |
| 144 | Chesterfield | 04:00 |
| 145 | Chichester | 04:00 |
| 168 | Crawley | 04:00 |
| 173 | Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East | 04:00 |
| 177 | Dartford | 04:00 |
| 183 | Derbyshire Dales | 04:00 |
| 190 | Devon North | 04:00 |
| 191 | Devon South West | 04:00 |
| 192 | Devon West & Torridge | 04:00 |
| 194 | Don Valley | 04:00 |
| 195 | Doncaster Central | 04:00 |
| 196 | Doncaster North | 04:00 |
| 200 | Dorset West | 04:00 |
| 204 | Dudley North | 04:00 |
| 205 | Dudley South | 04:00 |
| 207 | Dumfries & Galloway | 04:00 |
| 208 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale | 04:00 |
| 225 | Eastbourne | 04:00 |
| 228 | Edinburgh East | 04:00 |
| 229 | Edinburgh North & Leith | 04:00 |
| 230 | Edinburgh South | 04:00 |
| 231 | Edinburgh South West | 04:00 |
| 232 | Edinburgh West | 04:00 |
| 236 | Eltham | 04:00 |
| 240 | Epsom & Ewell | 04:00 |
| 242 | Erith & Thamesmead | 04:00 |
| 243 | Esher & Walton | 04:00 |
| 246 | Fareham | 04:00 |
| 253 | Folkestone & Hythe | 04:00 |
| 258 | Garston & Halewood | 04:00 |
| 259 | Gateshead | 04:00 |
| 270 | Gloucester | 04:00 |
| 278 | Greenwich & Woolwich | 04:00 |
| 279 | Guildford | 04:00 |
| 280 | Hackney North & Stoke Newington | 04:00 |
| 281 | Hackney South & Shoreditch | 04:00 |
| 286 | Hammersmith | 04:00 |
| 289 | Hampshire North West | 04:00 |
| 291 | Harborough | 04:00 |
| 294 | Harrow East | 04:00 |
| 295 | Harrow West | 04:00 |
| 306 | Hereford & Herefordshire South | 04:00 |
| 311 | Hertsmere | 04:00 |
| 313 | Heywood & Middleton | 04:00 |
| 332 | Ipswich | 04:00 |
| 336 | Islwyn | 04:00 |
| 341 | Kettering | 04:00 |
| 361 | Leigh | 04:00 |
| 362 | Lewes | 04:00 |
| 363 | Lewisham Deptford | 04:00 |
| 364 | Lewisham East | 04:00 |
| 365 | Lewisham West & Penge | 04:00 |
| 380 | Luton North | 04:00 |
| 381 | Luton South | 04:00 |
| 383 | Maidenhead | 04:00 |
| 390 | Mansfield | 04:00 |
| 392 | Meriden | 04:00 |
| 401 | Monmouth | 04:00 |
| 409 | New Forest East | 04:00 |
| 411 | Newark | 04:00 |
| 413 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | 04:00 |
| 414 | Newcastle upon Tyne Central | 04:00 |
| 415 | Newcastle upon Tyne East | 04:00 |
| 416 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | 04:00 |
| 422 | Norfolk North | 04:00 |
| 429 | Northamptonshire South | 04:00 |
| 432 | Nottingham East | 04:00 |
| 433 | Nottingham North | 04:00 |
| 434 | Nottingham South | 04:00 |
| 437 | Ogmore | 04:00 |
| 438 | Old Bexley & Sidcup | 04:00 |
| 441 | Orkney & Shetland | 04:00 |
| 447 | Pendle | 04:00 |
| 448 | Penistone & Stocksbridge | 04:00 |
| 449 | Penrith & The Border | 04:00 |
| 452 | Plymouth Moor View | 04:00 |
| 453 | Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | 04:00 |
| 459 | Preseli Pembrokeshire | 04:00 |
| 467 | Redditch | 04:00 |
| 473 | Richmond Park | 04:00 |
| 476 | Rochford & Southend East | 04:00 |
| 478 | Romsey & Southampton North | 04:00 |
| 485 | Runnymede & Weybridge | 04:00 |
| 489 | Saffron Walden | 04:00 |
| 497 | Scarborough & Whitby | 04:00 |
| 501 | Selby & Ainsty | 04:00 |
| 502 | Sevenoaks | 04:00 |
| 523 | Southampton Itchen | 04:00 |
| 524 | Southampton Test | 04:00 |
| 525 | Southend West | 04:00 |
| 527 | Spelthorne | 04:00 |
| 529 | Staffordshire Moorlands | 04:00 |
| 546 | Stroud | 04:00 |
| 547 | Suffolk Central & Ipswich North | 04:00 |
| 549 | Suffolk South | 04:00 |
| 554 | Surrey South West | 04:00 |
| 555 | Sussex Mid | 04:00 |
| 556 | Sutton & Cheam | 04:00 |
| 557 | Sutton Coldfield | 04:00 |
| 578 | Tottenham | 04:00 |
| 580 | Tunbridge Wells | 04:00 |
| 581 | Twickenham | 04:00 |
| 602 | Warwickshire North | 04:00 |
| 606 | Wealden | 04:00 |
| 616 | Westmorland & Lonsdale | 04:00 |
| 617 | Weston-Super-Mare | 04:00 |
| 618 | Wigan | 04:00 |
| 620 | Wiltshire South West | 04:00 |
| 626 | Witham | 04:00 |
| 628 | Woking | 04:00 |
| 635 | Worcestershire West | 04:00 |
| 644 | Wyre Forest | 04:00 |
| 18 | Arundel & South Downs | 04:30 |
| 26 | Banbury | 04:30 |
| 37 | Batley & Spen | 04:30 |
| 51 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk | 04:30 |
| 54 | Bexhill & Battle | 04:30 |
| 58 | Birmingham Erdington | 04:30 |
| 96 | Brigg & Goole | 04:30 |
| 138 | Cheadle | 04:30 |
| 147 | Chippenham | 04:30 |
| 148 | Chipping Barnet | 04:30 |
| 152 | Clacton | 04:30 |
| 157 | Colchester | 04:30 |
| 158 | Colne Valley | 04:30 |
| 159 | Congleton | 04:30 |
| 161 | Corby | 04:30 |
| 169 | Crewe & Nantwich | 04:30 |
| 178 | Daventry | 04:30 |
| 187 | Devizes | 04:30 |
| 193 | Dewsbury | 04:30 |
| 235 | Elmet & Rothwell | 04:30 |
| 271 | Gordon | 04:30 |
| 275 | Gravesham | 04:30 |
| 297 | Harwich & Essex North | 04:30 |
| 301 | Hazel Grove | 04:30 |
| 309 | Hertfordshire North East | 04:30 |
| 319 | Horsham | 04:30 |
| 322 | Huddersfield | 04:30 |
| 328 | Ilford North | 04:30 |
| 329 | Ilford South | 04:30 |
| 340 | Kensington | 04:30 |
| 349 | Lancashire West | 04:30 |
| 351 | Leeds Central | 04:30 |
| 352 | Leeds East | 04:30 |
| 353 | Leeds North East | 04:30 |
| 354 | Leeds North West | 04:30 |
| 355 | Leeds West | 04:30 |
| 360 | Leicestershire South | 04:30 |
| 394 | Middlesbrough | 04:30 |
| 400 | Mole Valley | 04:30 |
| 405 | Morley & Outwood | 04:30 |
| 420 | Newton Abbot | 04:30 |
| 424 | Norfolk South | 04:30 |
| 430 | Norwich North | 04:30 |
| 431 | Norwich South | 04:30 |
| 461 | Pudsey | 04:30 |
| 466 | Redcar | 04:30 |
| 496 | Salisbury | 04:30 |
| 498 | Scunthorpe | 04:30 |
| 503 | Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough | 04:30 |
| 504 | Sheffield Central | 04:30 |
| 505 | Sheffield Hallam | 04:30 |
| 506 | Sheffield Heeley | 04:30 |
| 507 | Sheffield South East | 04:30 |
| 510 | Shrewsbury & Atcham | 04:30 |
| 519 | Somerton & Frome | 04:30 |
| 532 | Stevenage | 04:30 |
| 534 | Stockport | 04:30 |
| 577 | Totnes | 04:30 |
| 582 | Tynemouth | 04:30 |
| 583 | Tyneside North | 04:30 |
| 619 | Wiltshire North | 04:30 |
| 627 | Witney | 04:30 |
| 630 | Wolverhampton North East | 04:30 |
| 631 | Wolverhampton South East | 04:30 |
| 632 | Wolverhampton South West | 04:30 |
| 9 | Altrincham & Sale West | 05:00 |
| 20 | Ashford | 05:00 |
| 36 | Bath | 05:00 |
| 39 | Beaconsfield | 05:00 |
| 52 | Bethnal Green & Bow | 05:00 |
| 53 | Beverley & Holderness | 05:00 |
| 56 | Birkenhead | 05:00 |
| 62 | Birmingham Northfield | 05:00 |
| 65 | Birmingham Yardley | 05:00 |
| 79 | Bootle | 05:00 |
| 80 | Boston & Skegness | 05:00 |
| 85 | Bradford East | 05:00 |
| 86 | Bradford South | 05:00 |
| 87 | Bradford West | 05:00 |
| 92 | Brentford & Isleworth | 05:00 |
| 97 | Brighton Kemptown | 05:00 |
| 98 | Brighton Pavilion | 05:00 |
| 110 | Burton | 05:00 |
| 115 | Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross | 05:00 |
| 116 | Calder Valley | 05:00 |
| 119 | Cambridge | 05:00 |
| 137 | Chatham & Aylesford | 05:00 |
| 146 | Chingford & Woodford Green | 05:00 |
| 149 | Chorley | 05:00 |
| 165 | Coventry North East | 05:00 |
| 166 | Coventry North West | 05:00 |
| 167 | Coventry South | 05:00 |
| 174 | Cynon Valley | 05:00 |
| 197 | Dorset Mid & Poole North | 05:00 |
| 198 | Dorset North | 05:00 |
| 199 | Dorset South | 05:00 |
| 218 | Ealing Central & Acton | 05:00 |
| 219 | Ealing North | 05:00 |
| 247 | Faversham & Kent Mid | 05:00 |
| 248 | Feltham & Heston | 05:00 |
| 249 | Fermanagh & South Tyrone | 05:00 |
| 252 | Finchley & Golders Green | 05:00 |
| 257 | Gainsborough | 05:00 |
| 274 | Grantham & Stamford | 05:00 |
| 282 | Halesowen & Rowley Regis | 05:00 |
| 284 | Haltemprice & Howden | 05:00 |
| 303 | Hemsworth | 05:00 |
| 304 | Hendon | 05:00 |
| 307 | Herefordshire North | 05:00 |
| 315 | Hitchin & Harpenden | 05:00 |
| 321 | Hove | 05:00 |
| 327 | Hyndburn | 05:00 |
| 331 | Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey | 05:00 |
| 338 | Keighley | 05:00 |
| 366 | Leyton & Wanstead | 05:00 |
| 370 | Liverpool Riverside | 05:00 |
| 371 | Liverpool Walton | 05:00 |
| 372 | Liverpool Wavertree | 05:00 |
| 373 | Liverpool West Derby | 05:00 |
| 378 | Louth & Horncastle | 05:00 |
| 384 | Maidstone & The Weald | 05:00 |
| 391 | Meon Valley | 05:00 |
| 410 | New Forest West | 05:00 |
| 426 | Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford | 05:00 |
| 454 | Pontypridd | 05:00 |
| 455 | Poole | 05:00 |
| 456 | Poplar & Limehouse | 05:00 |
| 470 | Rhondda | 05:00 |
| 472 | Richmond (Yorks) | 05:00 |
| 475 | Rochester & Strood | 05:00 |
| 480 | Rossendale & Darwen | 05:00 |
| 483 | Rugby | 05:00 |
| 488 | Rutland & Melton | 05:00 |
| 490 | St Albans | 05:00 |
| 495 | Salford & Eccles | 05:00 |
| 499 | Sedgefield | 05:00 |
| 500 | Sefton Central | 05:00 |
| 508 | Sherwood | 05:00 |
| 509 | Shipley | 05:00 |
| 512 | Sittingbourne & Sheppey | 05:00 |
| 518 | Somerset North East | 05:00 |
| 526 | Southport | 05:00 |
| 541 | Stourbridge | 05:00 |
| 543 | Stratford-on-Avon | 05:00 |
| 545 | Stretford & Urmston | 05:00 |
| 564 | Taunton Deane | 05:00 |
| 572 | Tiverton & Honiton | 05:00 |
| 575 | Torbay | 05:00 |
| 591 | Wakefield | 05:00 |
| 592 | Wallasey | 05:00 |
| 595 | Walthamstow | 05:00 |
| 599 | Warrington North | 05:00 |
| 600 | Warrington South | 05:00 |
| 622 | Winchester | 05:00 |
| 624 | Wirral South | 05:00 |
| 625 | Wirral West | 05:00 |
| 633 | Worcester | 05:00 |
| 637 | Worsley & Eccles South | 05:00 |
| 648 | York Central | 05:00 |
| 649 | York Outer | 05:00 |
| 650 | Yorkshire East | 05:00 |
| 22 | Aylesbury | 05:30 |
| 34 | Basingstoke | 05:30 |
| 57 | Birmingham Edgbaston | 05:30 |
| 60 | Birmingham Hodge Hill | 05:30 |
| 103 | Broadland | 05:30 |
| 108 | Buckingham | 05:30 |
| 123 | Cambridgeshire South East | 05:30 |
| 188 | Devon Central | 05:30 |
| 277 | Great Yarmouth | 05:30 |
| 283 | Halifax | 05:30 |
| 520 | South Holland & The Deepings | 05:30 |
| 605 | Waveney | 05:30 |
| 3 | Aberdeen North | 06:00 |
| 4 | Aberdeen South | 06:00 |
| 63 | Birmingham Perry Barr | 06:00 |
| 64 | Birmingham Selly Oak | 06:00 |
| 74 | Bognor Regis & Littlehampton | 06:00 |
| 126 | Cardiff Central | 06:00 |
| 127 | Cardiff North | 06:00 |
| 128 | Cardiff South & Penarth | 06:00 |
| 129 | Cardiff West | 06:00 |
| 220 | Ealing Southall | 06:00 |
| 254 | Forest of Dean | 06:00 |
| 261 | Gillingham & Rainham | 06:00 |
| 288 | Hampshire North East | 06:00 |
| 300 | Hayes & Harlington | 06:00 |
| 305 | Henley | 06:00 |
| 350 | Lancaster & Fleetwood | 06:00 |
| 404 | Morecambe & Lunesdale | 06:00 |
| 423 | Norfolk North West | 06:00 |
| 425 | Norfolk South West | 06:00 |
| 444 | Oxford West & Abingdon | 06:00 |
| 464 | Reading East | 06:00 |
| 465 | Reading West | 06:00 |
| 477 | Romford | 06:00 |
| 484 | Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner | 06:00 |
| 492 | St Helens North | 06:00 |
| 493 | St Helens South & Whiston | 06:00 |
| 511 | Shropshire North | 06:00 |
| 537 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | 06:00 |
| 538 | Stoke-on-Trent North | 06:00 |
| 539 | Stoke-on-Trent South | 06:00 |
| 563 | Tatton | 06:00 |
| 566 | Tewkesbury | 06:00 |
| 567 | Thanet North | 06:00 |
| 568 | Thanet South | 06:00 |
| 573 | Tonbridge & Malling | 06:00 |
| 587 | Uxbridge & Ruislip South | 06:00 |
| 597 | Wantage | 06:00 |
| 604 | Watford | 06:00 |
| 629 | Wokingham | 06:00 |
| 638 | Worthing East & Shoreham | 06:00 |
| 639 | Worthing West | 06:00 |
| 21 | Ashton Under Lyne | 06:30 |
| 59 | Birmingham Hall Green | 06:30 |
| 118 | Camborne & Redruth | 06:30 |
| 162 | Cornwall North | 06:30 |
| 163 | Cornwall South East | 06:30 |
| 180 | Denton & Reddish | 06:30 |
| 457 | Portsmouth North | 06:30 |
| 458 | Portsmouth South | 06:30 |
| 491 | St Austell & Newquay | 06:30 |
| 531 | Stalybridge & Hyde | 06:30 |
| 579 | Truro & Falmouth | 06:30 |
| 68 | Blackley & Broughton | 07:00 |
| 317 | Hornchurch & Upminster | 07:00 |
| 356 | Leicester East | 07:00 |
| 357 | Leicester South | 07:00 |
| 358 | Leicester West | 07:00 |
| 382 | Macclesfield | 07:00 |
| 387 | Manchester Central | 07:00 |
| 388 | Manchester Gorton | 07:00 |
| 389 | Manchester Withington | 07:00 |
| 397 | Milton Keynes North | 07:00 |
| 398 | Milton Keynes South | 07:00 |
| 439 | Oldham East & Saddleworth | 07:00 |
| 440 | Oldham West & Royton | 07:00 |
| 479 | Ross, Skye & Lochaber | 07:00 |
| 609 | Wells | 07:00 |
| 645 | Wythenshawe & Sale East | 07:00 |
| 50 | Berwick-upon-Tweed | 12:00 |
| 73 | Blyth Valley | 12:00 |
| 312 | Hexham | 12:00 |
| 339 | Kenilworth & Southam | 12:00 |
| 596 | Wansbeck | 12:00 |
| 601 | Warwick & Leamington | 12:00 |
| 494 | St Ives | 13:00 |
May 03 2015
Clown-car democracy
As the general election approaches we are being urged to vote, often with the pious imprecation that it doesn’t matter who we vote for just so long as we vote, because voting is important. After the election we will be told that we have spoken, meaning will be drawn from the deconstructed lemon cheesecake of the results.
But it’s all a bit of a lie: we live in a clown-car democracy.
Come May the 7th we’ll all leap into the clown-car and try to make it bend to our wishes. Some will try to honk the horn and get water squirted in the face for our troubles, others will wrench the steering wheel to the left or right and discover themselves heading in completely different directions. A bouquet of flowers will spring from the exhaust when someone puts an indicator on. The ringmaster will look cheery throughout.
We’ve all been trained to think that it’s entirely reasonable that a party might get 10% of the votes in the country but only one MP out of 650; that a party with a little over a third of the vote should have absolute power; that our political opponents can be described as “scum”. We’ve all been trained to accept sordid sexual metaphors when grown ups work together despite differences.
About
I've worked as a scientist for the last 30 years, at various universities, a large home and personal care company, a startup in Liverpool called The Sensible Code Company (formerly ScraperWiki Ltd), GBG and now as a consultant in data science.
I write about:
* the books I have read, typically science and history (or both), partly as a reminder to myself and partly as a review;
* science, things I have done or things I find interesting;
* technology, programming and gadgets;
politics, and current affairs;
* ...and other stuff as it takes my fancy - holidays, photographs and things I want to remember.