Author's posts
Aug 05 2016
Book review: The Company by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
The Company: A Short History of a Revolutionary Idea by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge is indirectly related to my reading of the history of science and technology. The commercial world impinges on stories such as that of the development of the railways, the story of Mauve and Lord Kelvin’s work on telegraphy. Scientific expeditions were motivated, in part, and supported logistically by merchant interests. The “search for the longitude” was driven by needs of merchants and navies.
The Company is particularly concerned with the limited liability joint-stock company, created in approximately its current form by the 1862 Companies Act in the UK but repeated across the world. In this system, the owners only risk the money they put into a venture (rather than all their worldly possessions), and shares in that company can be traded on the stockmarket.
The book starts with some prehistory, there is some evidence in Mesopotamia as back as far as 3000 BC for arrangements which went beyond simple barter. And by Roman times there were various forms of company used for collecting tax, for example. The Romans also had a developed legal system. These arrangements tended to be relatively short lived and in the form of partnerships, where the owners were the managers and if things went wrong they could lose the toga off their backs.
The Middle Ages saw the rise of “corporate persons” in Western Europe which included guilds, monasteries and corporations. The Aberdeen Harbour Board, founded in 1136 can lay claim to be the oldest still existing. In China there was a tendency towards large, long-lived state corporations. Italy had compagnie literally “breaking bread together” with shared total liability, and thus requiring high levels of trust. Banchi were the campagnies banking equivalents, often built around family ties. The relationship between banks and companies is a theme throughout the book.
England and France were scarred, separately, by the collapse of the South Sea Company and the Mississippi Company in the early 18th century. Created in the spirit of the East India Companies, monopoly corporations with a Royal Charter, they came to grief through rampant speculation and dubious government decisions on debt.
The railways provided the impetuous for the reform of company law. They required substantial investment, once formed they needed substantial workforces and management structures. In the early days each railway company had to make its case in parliament to gain its charter, this was a costly, slow undertaking. And so there were reforms culminating in the 1862 act.
A quote attributed to Edward Turlow in 1844: “Corporations have neither bodies to be punished, nor souls to be condemned, they therefore do as they like”, encapsulates an ongoing concern about companies. This from a lawmaker but a similar concern was echoed by economists of the time, they thought that a partner or manager/owner was going to do better job of running a company than a servant of shareholders.
The Company compares developments in the US, UK, Germany and Japan in the latter half of the 19th century. The US forte was in professionalising management, enabling them to build ever bigger companies. The UK had a more developed stockmarket but positively spurned professional management (a blight that has afflicted it since then). Germany had strong oversight boards from the beginning, complementing the management board. These included workforce representation, and companies were seen as a social enterprise.
This is the second tension in the company: whether it is solely interested in its shareholders or whether it is responsible to a wider group of stakeholders which might include its employees, the local community, environment and so forth.
The book continues with developments in the latter half of the 20th century, closing in 2002. These include the wave of privatisations across Europe (the French keeping substantial government control), and the decline of many big companies. In the case of Enron and WorldCom these were precipitous declines in disgrace but there were also leveraged buyouts and subsequent dismantlings. Another theme here is the balance between transaction costs and hierarchy costs. Companies succeed when the cost of running a hierarchy is lower than the savings made by carrying out transactions in aggregate. These costs and savings change over time, transaction costs have recently been much reduced by technology.
I was surprised by the recency of the commercial world we see today. The modern company and the stockmarket only really came into being in the final quarter of the 19th century with the great corporations rising to dominance in the first quarter of the 20th century. Harvard’s business school was only founded at the beginning of the 20th century. This is little more than a lifetime ago.
The same is true of trade tariffs, they were initially introduced by the US and Germany in the 1880s with Britain and the Netherlands holding out as “free-traders” until 1932. One wonders whether this is the origin of Anglo-Dutch conglomerates such as Unilever and Shell. The book is not explicit on the differences between tariffs and customs duties and taxes – a clarification which I would have found useful.
The authors are clearly enthusiasts for capitalism in the form of the company. The book is short and readable, and I felt enlightened for having read it. The bibliography has some good pointers for further reading.
Jul 20 2016
Book review: The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom by Stephen M. Stigler
The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom by Stephen M. Stigler is a brief history of what the author describes as the key pillars of statistics. This is his own selection rather than some consensus of statistical opinion. That said, to my relatively untrained eye the quoted pillars are reasonable. They are as follows:
1 – Aggregation. The use of the arithmetic average or mean is not self-evidently a good thing. It was during the 17th century, when people were taking magnetic measurements in order to navigate, that ideas around the mean started to take hold. Before this time it was not obvious which value one should take when discussing a set of measurement purportedly measuring the same thing. One might take the mid-point of the range of values, or apply some subjective process based on your personal knowledge of the measurer. During the 17th century researchers came to the conclusion that the arithmetic mean was best.
2 – Information. Once you’ve discovered the mean, how good is it as a measure of the underlying phenomena as you increase the size of the aggregation? It seems obvious that the measure improves as the number of trials increases but how quickly? The non-trivial answer to this question is that it scales as the square root of N, the number of measurements. Sadly this means if you double the number of measurements you make, you only improve you confidence in the mean by a factor of a little over 1.4 (that being the square root of 2) . Mixed in here are ideas about the standard deviation, a now routine formulation quoted with the mean. It was originally introduced by De Moivre in 1738, for the binomial distribution, but then generalised by Laplace in 1810 as the Central Limit Theorem.
3 – Likelihood. This relates to estimating confidence that an observed difference is real, and not due to chance. The earliest work, by John Arbuthnot, related to observed sex ratios in births recorded in England and whether they could be observed by chance rather than through a “real” difference in the number of boys and girls born.
4 – Intercomparison. Frequently we wish to compare sets of measurements to see if one thing is significantly different from another. The Student t-test is an example of such a thing. Named for William Gosset, who took a sabbatical from his job at Guiness to work in Karl Pearson’s lab at UCL. As an employee Guiness did not want Gosset’s name to appear on a scientific paper (thus revealing their interest), so he wrote under the rather unimaginative pseudonym “Student”.
5 – Regression. The chapter starts with Charles Darwin, and his disregard for higher mathematics. He professed a faith in measurement and “The Rule of Three”. This is the algebraic identity a/b = c/d which states that if you know any 3 of a, b, c and d you can calculate the 4th. This is true in a perfect world, but in practice we would acquire multiple sets of our three selected values and use regression to obtain a “best fit” for the fourth value. Also in this chapter is Galton’s work on regression to the mean in particularly how parents with extreme heights had children who were on average closer to the mean height. This is highly relevant to the study of evolution and the inheritance of characteristics.
6 – Design. The penultimate pillar is design. In the statistical sense this means the design of an experiment in terms of the numbers of trials, and the organisation of the trials. This starts with a discussion of calculating odds for the French lottery (founded in 1757) and providing up to 4% of the French budget in 1811. It then moves on to RA Fisher’s work at the Rothamsted Research Centre on randomisation in agricultural trials. My experience of experimental design, is that statisticians always want you to do more trials than you can afford, or have time for!
7 – Residual. Plotting the residual left when you have made your best model and taken it from your data is a time honoured technique. Systematic patterns in the residuals can indicate your modern is wrong, that there are new as yet undiscovered phenomena to be discovered. I was impressed to discover in this chapter that Frank Weldon cast 12 dice some 315,672 times to try to determine if they were biased. Data collection can be an obsessive activity. This story from the early 20th century is not in common.
Seven Pillars is oddly pitched, it is rather technical for a general science audience. It is an entertainment, rather than a technical text. The individual chapters would have fitted quite neatly into The Values of Precision, which I have reviewed previously.
Jul 16 2016
A question for Theresa May
Why have you appointed a man as foreign secretary who has:
- Been sacked twice for lying (by Michael Howard and editor of the Times, Charles Wilson);
- Rode around in a bus with a massive lie on it;
- Won a prize for an obscene poem about the Turkish President;
- Insulted the President of the United States;
- Written a range of racist comments (see item 2 here, others covered elsewhere);
- Published, as an editor, racist material;
- Had to visit the city of Liverpool in person to apologise for offending them;
- Discussed arranging an attack on a journalist with Darius Guppy;
For ordinary working people a track record like this would send their CV to the bottom of the pile. Apparently things are different for a senior member of the Tory Party.
Jul 10 2016
Benllech
Benllech is on the north coast of Anglesey, about an hour and a half drive from our home in Chester. This is a bit embarrassing because it means our holiday home has tourists leaflets for excursions to our actual home!
We’re staying at Tinker’s Patch, a seventies bungalow in an estate just 5 minutes walk from Benllech Sands. It’s a very short drive from the main road with straightforward parking. We can see the sea from the living room window. Benllech is nondescript but has a good selection of mini-supermarkets and a rather good chip shop with a spectacular view over the bay. The Sands are great, at high water they just about disappear and at low tide a great expanse of sand is exposed. There are a smattering a rocky bits and at the top of the beach some nicely stratified limestone cliffs. We made a daily trip to the beach, every afternoon. As usual our intuition about when high and low tides occur turns out to be completely wrong, important at Benllech since at high tide the sea comes up to the sea wall and at low tide there is several hundred metres of beach.
Day 1 – Saturday
Our first full day of holiday and we visit Anglesey Sea Zoo which overlooks the Menai Straits. It’s not huge but it has plenty to entertain a small child and the cakes in the coffee shop turn out to be pretty much the best of the week.
Day 2 – Sunday
Beaumaris is a rather fine village, with the castle on one edge. It is an odd sort of a thing, it was never finished and has an air of never having been lived in but there are a fair number of walls to walk along and activities for children.
In town, the Redboat Gelato icecream parlour is rather fine, we had a nice coffee whilst Thomas had a huge icecream. They offer exotic fare such as cinnamon and white pepper and pear and gorgonzola icecreams. We plan to go back one afternoon because Mrs SomeBeans and I did not consider icecream a morning food. The village has a smart nautical feel with the fine Victoria Terrace looking out over the Menai Straits (designed by Joseph Hansom, of cab fame).
Day 3 – Monday
We saw Plas Newydd as we arrived from the mainland, looking over the Menai Straits. There are forested grounds with a long frontage on the Straits and a house to explore. The house is the summer home of an old family.
Day 4 – Tuesday
A trip to Copper Mountain and Amlwch, a little north of us on the island. Copper Mountain is a brightly coloured lunar landscape which was once home to much mining activity (and has been for thousands of years). I have never seen such brightly coloured rocks before (and I’ve been to Utah). At the top of the mountain is the shell of a windmill which was used in conjunction with a steam engine towards the end of the mine’s life.
Amlwch is just down the road from the Copper Mountain. We saw three museums in the space of 100 yards. The Sail Loft at the harbourside is a cafe downstairs and has a maritime museum upstairs. On the quay is a tiny geological museum. It turns out Anglesey has rocks from pretty much every geological period mashed together. Finally, there is the Copper Mountain Heritage Centre.
Day 5 – Wednesday
To Caernarfon to see the castle today. It’s the most impressive castle I’ve visited, very big with its structure largely intact. There’s a warren of passageways to follow and stairs to climb.
We didn’t manage to do all of it even in two sessions, broken by a coffee and cake on the Castle Square.
Day 6 – Thursday
Anglesey Sea Zoo again, it’s rainy and the cloud is low. The ticket from our visit on Saturday gets us in for free. In the afternoon the sun breaks through and we have a last trip to the beach with obligatory icecream.
Mrs SomeBeans recreated the cuttlefish in playdoh:
Jul 07 2016
Book review: SPQR–A History of Ancient Rome by Mary Beard
A little diversion for me next: straightforward classical history. I’ve read SPQR: A History of Ancient Rome by Mary Beard. SPQR Senātus Populusque Rōmānus is the motto of the city, meaning “The Senate and People of Rome”, it has been used since antiquity and is still in use now.
The book starts with the story of Cicero and Catiline in 63 BCE, Cicero revealed Catiline’s plot to overthrow the Roman government. It is presented as the first events where there was significant documentary evidence from multiple sources. Proper history, if you like. Even then what survives should not necessarily be read as gospel truth. Rome prior to this was seen in fragments.
Beard returns to this theme of what the evidence is and how much we can trust it throughout the book. As I read through I discover that the earliest copies of Roman writings date from about 500 AD, anything written before then has been transcribed perhaps several times. Some of this writing sounds like it is in the form of what we would understand as contemporary books but other parts are the selected, edited letters of important people. In neither case are they published and promoted in the way we see modern publishing. In terms of contemporary texts, the inscriptions on tombs and monuments provide a second source of material. In earlier years these inscriptions were limited to the most important but in the first century CE there was a huge expansion of tomb inscriptions from what appear to be relatively ordinary people. There is some writing preserved in wall paintings and less formal graffiti in rare places, like Pompeii. There is some material from the Vindolanda tablets, found at Hadrian’s Wall. We also learn of the books that are lost from references and quotes in other extant works.
The book then returns to cover the history of Rome in chronological order. Starting with the founding myth of Romulus and Remus, purportedly raised by wolves. Subsequently Romulus killed Remus over an argument about where to found the city which was to become Rome. The founding story of Romulus and Remus and fratricide can be seen as a retrospective “justification” for the almost continuous civil war within the Roman Empire. Archaeological evidence shows settlements on the site of modern Rome from around 800BCE. A second theme of the myths of early Rome is the way in which the city grew by assimilating neighbours, you didn’t need to be born in the city to be a Roman, you didn’t even need to live there. The city welcomed incomers.
Rome ran through a sequence of political structures, starting with the Regal Period (of kings) which was replaced with the Roman Republic, where two elected consuls ruled, in 509 BCE. During this period trying to re-introduce a monarchy or calling yourself “king” was seen as anathema. The consuls were finally replaced with Emperors in 44 BCE after the Roman Empire had reached almost its greatest extent. It was experimenting with ways of being a state, in the sense that the prevailing organisations at the time were on a city basis rather than a country. We take the nation-state and its political and bureaucratic structures pretty much for granted these days, for example, we have courts and police forces and so forth. In the years of the Roman Empire these structures were not well-established, and much of SPQR describes Romans feeling their way in establishing political structures.
It’s easy to project the modern world onto the Roman Empire but really it is very different. 20% of the population were slaves, newborn children were fairly casually abandoned. There was no effective system of justice in terms of an established police force or a court system designed to address simple crimes of property or violence against the ordinary person. The great majority of the written record of Rome refers to “Great Men” but Beard writes a couple of chapters on what can be inferred about women and the poor. Strikingly the poor were more likely to “eat out” than the wealthy – they couldn’t afford kitchens of their own.
I pleased to learn that the Emperor Caligula was named for his “Bootikins”, he was taken on military campaigns as a child and dressed in a soldiers uniform with “little soldier’s boots” – caligula. And a Roman writing from Britain writes of the Brittunculi – the Little Britons. Rather relevant to current affairs is the tombstone of a British woman, Regina, born north of London whose husband, Barates from Palmyra in Syria, commissioned the monument, placed near South Shields in the first century CE.
The book ends in 212 CE when the Emperor Caracalla grants everyone in the Roman Empire citizenship. This falls approximately a 1000 years after the founding of Rome, the Roman Empire in the East was to last another millennium but Beard leaves this story to another writer.
At first sight this is an intimidating tome but it reads well, and clearly. It revealed sufficient of the underlying methodology of classical scholars to pique my interest.